PostgreSQL 9.1
业务状况
每个月,都会为特定的流程分配一批新的帐户。可以按月份,帐户数和帐户总余额来描述每批。该过程的目标是从客户那里收回一些余额。
然后每月分别跟踪每个批次(自将批次转移到流程以来,每个月回收的金额)。
目标
我的目标是预测将来将回收多少。
数据定义
create table vintage_data (
granularity date, /* Month when account entered process*/
distance_in_months integer, /* Distance in months from date when accounts entered process*/
entry_accounts integer, /* Number of accounts that entered process in a given month*/
entry_amount numeric, /* Total amount for account that entered process in a given month*/
recovery_amount numeric /* Amount recovered in Nth month on accounts that entered process in a given month */
);
样本数据
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',1,200,100000,1000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',2,200,100000,2000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',3,200,100000,3000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',4,200,100000,3500);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',5,200,100000,3400);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-01-31',6,200,100000,3300);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-02-28',1,250,150000,1200);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-02-28',2,250,150000,1600);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-02-28',3,250,150000,1800);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-02-28',4,250,150000,1200);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-02-28',5,250,150000,1600);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-03-31',1,200,90000,1300);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-03-31',2,200,90000,1200);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-03-31',3,200,90000,1400);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-03-31',4,200,90000,1000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-04-30',1,300,180000,1600);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-04-30',2,300,180000,1500);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-04-30',3,300,180000,4000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-05-31',1,400,225000,2200);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-05-31',2,400,225000,6000);
insert into vintage_data values('2012-06-30',1,100,60000,1000);
计算过程
您可以将数据想象成一个三角形矩阵(将预测X值):
distance_in_months 1 2 3 4 5 6
granularity entry_accounts entry_amount
2012-01-31 200 100000 1000 2000 3000 3500 3400 3300
2012-02-28 250 150000 1200 1600 1800 1200 1600 (X-1)
2012-03-31 200 90000 1300 1200 1400 1000 (X0) (X4)
2012-04-30 300 180000 1600 1500 4000 (X1) (X5) (X8)
2012-05-31 400 225000 2200 6000 (X2) (X6) (X9) (X11)
2012-06-30 100 60000 1000 (X3) (X7) (X10) (X12 (X13)
算法
我的目标是预测所有遗漏的点( future )。为了说明该过程,这是对点X1的计算
1)使用不超过4的距离获取前三个月的行总计:
2012-01-31 1000+2000+3000+3500=9500 (d4m3)
2012-02-28 1200+1600+1800+1200=5800 (d4m2)
2012-03-31 1300+1200+1400+1000=4900 (d4m1)
2)使用不超过3的距离获取前三个月的行总计:
2012-01-31 1000+2000+3000=6000 (d3m3)
2012-02-28 1200+1600+1800=4600 (d3m2)
2012-03-31 1300+1200+1400=3800 (d3m1)
3)计算距离3和距离4的加权平均运行率(由entry_amount加权):
(d4m3+d4m2+d4m1)/(100000+150000+90000) = (9500+5800+4900)/(100000+150000+90000) = 20200/340000 = 0.0594
(d3m3+d3m2+d3m1)/(100000+150000+90000) = (6000+4600+3800)/(100000+150000+90000) = 14400/340000 = 0.0424
4)计算距离3和距离4之间的变化
((d4m3+d4m2+d4m1)/(100000+150000+90000))/((d3m3+d3m2+d3m1)/(100000+150000+90000)) =
= (20200/340000)/(14400/340000) =
= 0.0594/0.0424 = 1.403 (PredictionRateForX1)
5)使用不超过3的距离计算预测月份的行总计
2012-04-30 1600+1500+4000=7100
6)使用entry_amount计算预测月份的费率
7100/180000 = 0.0394
7)计算X1的预测速率
0.0394 * PredictionRateForX1 = 0.05534
8)计算X1的数量
(0.05534-0.0394)*180000 = 2869.2
问题
问题是如何使用SQL语句计算矩阵的其余部分(从x-1到x13)。显然,这将需要某种递归算法。
最佳答案
这是一项艰巨的任务,将其拆分以使其更易于管理。我会把它放在带有RETURN TABLE
的plpgsql函数中:
您需要为此安装
tablefunc
模块。运行(每个数据库一次):CREATE EXTENSION tablefunc;
以下演示功能完整,并已在PostgreSQL 9.1.4中进行了测试。以问题中提供的表定义为基础:
-- DROP FUNCTION f_forcast();
CREATE OR REPLACE FUNCTION f_forcast()
RETURNS TABLE (
granularity date
,entry_accounts numeric
,entry_amount numeric
,d1 numeric
,d2 numeric
,d3 numeric
,d4 numeric
,d5 numeric
,d6 numeric) AS
$BODY$
BEGIN
--== Create temp table with result of crosstab() ==--
CREATE TEMP TABLE matrix ON COMMIT DROP AS
SELECT *
FROM crosstab (
'SELECT granularity, entry_accounts, entry_amount
,distance_in_months, recovery_amount
FROM vintage_data
ORDER BY 1, 2',
'SELECT DISTINCT distance_in_months
FROM vintage_data
ORDER BY 1')
AS tbl (
granularity date
,entry_accounts numeric
,entry_amount numeric
,d1 numeric
,d2 numeric
,d3 numeric
,d4 numeric
,d5 numeric
,d6 numeric
);
ANALYZE matrix; -- update statistics to help calculations
--== Calculations ==--
-- I implemented the first calculation for X1 and leave the rest to you.
-- Can probably be generalized in a loop or even a single statement.
UPDATE matrix m
SET d4 = (
SELECT (sum(x.d1) + sum(x.d2) + sum(x.d3) + sum(x.d4))
/(sum(x.d1) + sum(x.d2) + sum(x.d3)) - 1
-- removed redundant sum(entry_amount) from equation
FROM (
SELECT *
FROM matrix a
WHERE a.granularity < m.granularity
ORDER BY a.granularity DESC
LIMIT 3
) x
) * (m.d1 + m.d2 + m.d3)
WHERE m.granularity = '2012-04-30';
--- Next update X2 ..
--== Return results ==--
RETURN QUERY
TABLE matrix
ORDER BY 1;
END;
$BODY$ LANGUAGE plpgsql;
称呼:
SELECT * FROM f_forcast();
我已经简化了很多,在计算中删除了一些多余的步骤。
该解决方案采用了多种先进技术。您需要了解PostgreSQL的使用方式。